This is the moment that many of us have been warning about for so long. After years of shameful American obsequious towards Iran, the emboldened theocratic pariah has launched an attack on Israel, threatening to draw us into war.
The full extent of the hostilities are still unfolding, but two conclusions are certain. First, this is the culmination of years of American appeasement. Second, it carries the danger of escalation into a global conflict that would involve Britain. In fact, to these we can add a third: If intelligence assessments about Iran’s nuclear programme are wrong and the regime already possesses an operational warhead, all bets are off.
Looking at how things could escalate is easier than finding the narrow path to sustained peace. For example: Iran is joined by the formidable Hezbollah and its other proxies in the war, overwhelming Israeli air defences with swarms of drones and following that with missiles. Houthi rockets block the Red Sea, destabilising the global economy.
As America, Britain and other democracies dispatch forces to the eastern Mediterranean, China attacks Taiwan, forcing the White House to divert assets to the Indo-Pacific. Seeing an opening, Putin attacks Estonia, a Nato state, and fires missiles at London. Next steps could include nuclear warheads and North Korea.
How would Britain fare? Look at us. Depleted armed forces, a few weeks’ supply of ammunition at best, Trident missiles that plopped into the sea at the last test, a £3 billion aircraft carrier with a rusty propeller and a society that for decades has wilfully undermined its own patriotism.
The Defence Secretary’s warning in January that we were living a “pre-war world” had little effect on our decadent and peace-fattened public. At next week’s London Gaza march, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear a new chant: “Iran, Iran, make us proud.” Very soon, our self-righteous finger-wagging over Israeli self-defence will give way to panic when we feel the heat ourselves.
Speaking of decadence – and naivety and sheer incompetence – this crisis has been facilitated by Joe Biden. His administration’s attitude towards Tehran has been one of abject appeasement. And when facing interlocking adversaries like China, Russia and Iran, appeasing one emboldens them all.
The west’s sole weapon against the Iranians has been economic. But as Rich Goldberg, former director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the White House’s National Security Council, has noted, the Biden administration has been undermining its own sanctions, releasing $16 billion in frozen funds to Tehran in the leadup to October 7.
That vast sum included $6 billion to secure the release of five American captives in September, a historic ransom that could only have encouraged the taking of further hostages. The deal avoided congressional oversight by being rushed through in the summer recess. Does anyone believe that American efforts to earmark this money for humanitarian purposes have worked?
It sounds preposterous, but the State Department has also been turning a blind eye towards sales of Iranian oil to China, enabling Tehran to export over a million barrels daily, and has allowed Iraq to trade oil for Iran’s gas. These economic sweeteners started as part of a failed effort to revive Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 in favour of “maximum pressure”.
The talks, led by the ultra-dovish Robert Malley, were woeful. So soft were the Americans that it was left to British negotiators to toughen things up, a diplomat involved in the talks told me. In the event, the Iranians simply played for time while accelerating towards a bomb. All the crucial milestones, including achieving enrichment at 20 per cent, then 60 per cent, and so forth, were reached in this period of dithering. Tehran is now thought to be a week away from having enough nuclear material for one warhead. This could be weaponised within months.
To achieve this, with the eyes of the world on Gaza, the Ayatollahs have been building an underground facility in Natanz deep enough to evade any Western airstrike. One bomb alone will not destroy the world, but the clock stands at a minute to midnight. Is it finally about to chime?
The heart of the problem is that the west has no theory of mind about the Iranian regime. Our diplomatic class projects the principle of enlightened self-interest onto the Ayatollahs, when in truth, despite their sophisticated strategising, they are driven by religious fanaticism.
As anyone educated in regime schools will confirm, they believe that an apocalyptic war will herald the return of a messianic figure called the Mahdi. Along with 313 of his most loyal fighters, he will conquer the world and usher in a new age. The regime’s strategy for the endtimes involves three components: ballistic missiles, proxy militia and nuclear weapons. Israel is the target.
We are in the crosshairs, too. There have been at least 25 foiled Iranian assassination attempts in Britain in the last two years. Last month, an Iranian dissident journalist was stabbed in London in a suspected regime attack. A security official told me that of all the threats facing our country, Iran was the one that kept him up at night.
It is too late to demand for Britain to re-arm. It is too late for the Americans to get tough. This is war. We are what we are, and we must gather our courage.
Jake Wallis Simons is the author of ‘Israelophobia’
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